A stochastic hazard assessment for Australia based on an external perspective

Australia is in a unique position globally being a continent where Mw7.0 events can occur in the Craton, and potentially similar large events in the non-Craton areas, however only a recorded history of around 150-200 years or less exists in most locations. Although a lowmoderate seismicity country, many locations have already experienced damaging earthquakes. The recent earthquake hazard maps in Australia are discussed and compared with some other nations. Earthquake hazard maps in locations such as France where over 2000 years of data have provided a smoother view of seismicity are representative of what a seismic hazard map can be when a significant event record has occurred. For comparison, simplified hazard maps of these locations are introduced using the same amount of data as Australia has available. Using a combined model of cluster analysis, smooth seismicity, seismic source zones and ground motion prediction equations an alternative stochastic Australian hazard model has been built up. Problems such as the short earthquake history and the lack of larger events mean that the Australia hazard model requires as much data as possible, and not simply an instrumental catalogue from the last few decades.